全球棉花产量将根据更好的收益扩大

 

Global cotton output to expand from better yields

In 2016/17, world cotton acreage is expected to contract 1 per cent to 31 million hectares, however, average yield is projected to expand 5 per cent to 735 kg/ha, leading global output to grow 5 per cent to 23 million tons.
According to ICAC, global cotton consumption is forecast to remain at 23.6 million tons in 2016/17 as low prices for competing fibres make cotton less attractive.
“So, while mill use may remain stagnant, world cotton trade volume may increase 1 per cent to 7.4 million tons in 2016/17,” ICAC averred.
In 2016/17, China's imports are expected to decrease by 8 per cent to 947,000 tons as the Chinese government continues to restrict imports in order to reduce its sizeable stocks of cotton.
While, global cotton stocks at the end of 2016/17 are expected to be down 5 per cent to 20.4 million tons as mill use exceeds production by 930,000 tons.
Though the stock-to-use ratio outside of China would be similar to the 36 per cent registered last season, ending stocks in the rest of the world are forecast to rise 3 per cent to 8.7 million tons.

译文如下：

全球棉花产量将根据更好的收益扩大

2016-2017年度,全球棉花种植面积预计将萎缩1%至3100万公顷,然而,平均收益预计将扩大5%至每公顷735公斤,领先的全球产量将增长5%至2300万吨。

根据ICAC，2016-2017年度，全球棉花消费预计将保持在2360万吨的，因为纤维低价格竞争使得棉花缺乏吸引力。

“所以,当工厂使用可能保持停滞不前,2016-2017年度全球棉花贸易量可能仍会增加1%至740万吨,” ICAC断言。

2016-2017年度,预计中国的进口量将减少8%至947000吨,因为中国政府继续限制进口,以减少其可观的棉花库存。

而2016-2017年度,全球棉花库存预计将下降5%至2040万吨,因为工厂使用量超过93万吨。

尽管中国以外的库存到使用的利用率将于上季的36%差不多,但是世界其他国家的库存预计将增长3%至870万吨。