印度：未来棉花价格不太可能会下降

 

Cotton prices unlikely to fall in near future

Notwithstanding the Union Ministry of Textile’s direction to the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) to offload its stock only to micro, small, medium scale to (MSME) units in the wake of rising cotton prices, the rates of the commodity are not likely to fall sharply till the arrival of new crop in October.

"The recent government directive to CCI to sell its entire cotton stock to micro, small, medium scale spinning units will help contain the price rise of cotton. However, Ind-Ra believes that cotton prices will not see any steep decrease, till the arrival of the next cotton crop," Mumbai-based financial institution India Ratings (Ind-Ra) said in a report.

Cotton prices have shot up by over 35% since May 2016. The fall in domestic production has spiked cotton prices, which are likely to remain at a high level of Rs 120-127/kg till the cotton season ending September.

The rise in prices is expected to squeeze profits of ginners and spinners by over 15% in the current fiscal. There may not be any sharp fall since prices already factor in the release of stock from inventory, Ind-Ra said.

Cotton prices are expected to be under pressure on likely fall in acreage. "Fear of losses from pest attacks and due to the lack of alternatives to biotech cotton hybrids, acreage (of cotton) is likely to decline. This may push up cotton prices further, however increasing demand for manmade fibre, will contain the price rise," Ind-Ra noted.

译文如下：

印度：未来棉花价格不太可能会下降

尽管联盟纺织部指导印度棉花公司(CCI)向微、小、中等规模(MSME)单位出售库存后,紧随其后棉花价格上涨,但是商品的价格不太可能大幅下降直到10月份新作物的到来。

“最近政府指示CCI向微、小和中等规模的纺织厂出售其整个棉花库存,这将有助于抑制棉花价格上涨。然而,Ind-Ra认为,棉花价格不会急剧减少,直到新的棉花作物的到来,”印度孟买金融机构评级(Ind-Ra)在一份报告中称。

自2016年5月以来，棉花价格已经飙升了35%。国内产量的下降阻止了棉花价格,这可能会保持在每公斤120-127公斤的高水平，直到棉花季截至9月结束。

当前财年，价格上涨有望挤压纺纱者和轧棉厂15%的利润。可能不会有急剧下跌，因为价格已经从库存释放，Ind-Ra说。

棉花价格预计将承受种植面积下降的压力。“害怕由于害虫袭击的损失以及由于缺乏替代品的转基因棉花杂交品种,棉花面积可能会下降。这可能会进一步推高棉花价格，然后增加对人造纤维的需求,将遏制价格上涨,”Ind-Ra指出。